In this fourth edition of Inside Reform, we focus on the 7 May 2026 local elections, where Reform UK is set for its most significant electoral opportunity yet.

After winning 677 seats (41% of those contested) and taking control of 10 councils last year, current projections suggest the party could go significantly further, potentially securing more than 1,300 seats and emerging as the dominant force of the cycle. Far from plateauing, Reform’s support is continuing to grow.

This surge comes alongside steep losses for the main parties. Labour is projected to lose well over 1,500 councillors, potentially approaching 2,000, while the Conservatives face further substantial declines. The result is not just a swing in votes, but a wider fragmentation of the political landscape, with Reform increasingly positioned as the principal beneficiary.

Against this backdrop, this edition examines where those gains are most likely to land. We track the key battlegrounds across the regions, Scotland and Wales, and assess where Reform is best placed to convert momentum into additional local authority influence on 7 May.

We also examine Reform's “outer borough” strategy in London in detail, with the party set to reshape the capital's political geography. The following video sets out Concilio’s analysis: