Insight #4
23rd April, 2026
The Reform Factor
Polling at around 17% in the capital, Nigel Farage's party is a genuine electoral force in London's 7 May local elections, and its impact will be felt well beyond its primary targets.
Reform's London campaign follows a familiar electoral geography, the same outer London doughnut that propelled Boris Johnson to City Hall twice.
Concilio were at Reform's party conference in September, where London Assembly member Alex Wilson announced they are "seriously campaigning" to take control of councils on the outskirts of the city. High-profile defections, including Romford MP Andrew Rosindell, have added momentum, and Reform now has sitting councillors in each target borough.
But Reform's appeal is not limited to disaffected Conservatives. Former Labour Mayor of Newham Sir Robin Wales and ex-councillor Clive Furness have both defected to the party. Last year's Hendon by-election offers a useful data point: Reform picked up 30% of the vote from a standing start in a traditionally safe Conservative seat, with the swing drawn from both Conservative and Labour voters.
Reform won't even need to take outright control of a borough to shape the night. In places like Barnet and Enfield, where the Conservatives are hoping to reclaim ground, strong Reform numbers could split the right-wing vote, handing Labour a lifeline or pushing councils into No Overall Control. The party's influence on the overall London result may prove greater than its own tally of seats suggests.
Concilio's Inside Reform series has been tracking polling, personnel and planning decisions since the party first made inroads in local government last year. To subscribe or request a London-wide election briefing, get in touch at hello@conciliocomms.com