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Concilio Intelligence

What’s shaping the London Local Elections in 2026

2026 is a different moment entirely

After 2022, Labour controlled 21 of London’s 32 boroughs. It was the party’s strongest-ever performance in local government in the capital, and it came on the back of the Conservatives’ worst years in living memory.

Since Labour’s general election victory, by-election data shows the party’s London vote has fallen by nearly 18%. That’s not one bad night. It’s a pattern, playing out differently in different parts of the city and driven by five distinct forces.

Over the next two weeks, we’re setting out all five: from a Green surge across the capital, to an underreported Lib Dem advance, to the dynamics of Reform UK and the pro-Gaza independent parties that, in some boroughs, represent the most immediate threat to Labour control. All while considering whether the Conservatives can take advantage of this political moment.

Five themes. Two weeks. One election on 7 May that will shape the conditions for planning and development across London for the next four years.

14th April

Revealed

The Green Surge
The Green surge is here, and it will have direct implications for planning and housing across London.
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16th April

Revealed

The Lib Dem Story
The Lib Dems are seeking to build on firm foundations, growing out from their traditional south-west London strongholdsl
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21st April

Revealed

The Tory fight back
The headline targets are Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet. Emblematic losses in 2022, these are now the Conservatives’ clearest path to recovery, and the clearest test of whether Labour’s national incumbency is costing it at a local level.
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23rd April

Revealed

The Reform Factor
Reform UK are targeting the outer London doughnut, looking to capitalise on Brexit-voting, traditionally Conservative boroughs that border Kent, where they took control last year.
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Pro-Gaza Independents

Coming soon

Tuesday 28th April 2026

Pro-Gaza Independents

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Pro-Gaza independents are threatening Labour control in Newham and Redbridge, boroughs the party has dominated for decades, after a string of by-election wins and Labour defections. Will they follow Tower Hamlets and reject Labour on 7 May?

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