Insight #1

14th April, 2026

Green Surge

The first of our five themes shaping the local elections in London on 7 May, is the Green surge. 

As we set out in our Labour’s Lost Vote report (January 2026), Labour is facing growing pressure on its left flank and the Greens are emerging as the primary beneficiary of that shift.

Zack Polanski’s party is stepping into that space with increasing confidence, following its campaign launch last week with a strong emphasis on housing. Polanski criticised the government’s record on affordable and social housing, arguing that “houses should be built as homes and not for profit”, while calling for measures such as rent controls and greater public sector involvement in delivery. With a clear message on affordability and a growing base of younger, urban voters, the Greens are positioning themselves for what they believe could be “record-breaking results” in May.

“Houses should be built as homes and not for profit”

Recent data backs that up. In London, the Greens are now polling at around 23%, just two points behind Labour, and leading among 18–24-year-olds on roughly 36%. At a local level, that shift is already translating into results, with double-digit vote share gains in places like Greenwich and Lambeth. 

Key Takeaways

23%

Polling in London, just 2 points behind Labour.

36%

Lead among 18–24 year olds.

Double-digit gains

already seen in Greenwich and Lambeth.

This is being driven in large part by the “AVOCADOs”, younger, urban, degree-educated renters who are increasingly moving away from Labour. In inner London boroughs such as Lewisham, Hackney, Islington and Southwark, where these voters are concentrated, the Greens have a strong opportunity to win seats.

Like Zohran Mamdani in New York, Polanski has leaned into a simple narrative: people are struggling because the system isn’t working for them. The focus on rent, bills and wages is cutting through, particularly with younger voters – something we explored in our recent podcast with Jessica Tarlov on the politics of affordability which you can listen to here.

Even where they fall short of control, the Greens could hold the balance of power in a number of boroughs, shaping decisions on planning and housing. 

What’s Shaping The London Local Elections In 2026 is a different moment entirely.